Storm

Climate scenarios provide no clear answers on how the wind climate might change in the future. As in the current climate there will continue to be years or decades with more or fewer storms, however, forest damage may increase.

There are many complex factors and circumstances that affect the course, strength and frequency of storms. A warmer ocean surface and more water vapour in the atmosphere etc., contribute to the development of storms.

At the same time this warming leads to reduced differences between warm and cold air masses, which play an important role in the development of intense storms. This may in turn counteract the amplifying effect that warming has on storm development.

The low pressure systems that can develop into storms are generally expected to become less frequent in the northern hemisphere in a warmer climate. It is difficult to draw conclusions from the scenarios about regional changes that exceed variability naturally occurring in the system.

This means that there will be years or decades in the future with more or fewer storms – not much different from today's climate.

Increased risk of storm damage

Milder winters with increased precipitation are expected to become more common in a future climate, and gradually the conditions for soil frost will change. As a result the risk of storm damage can increase regardless of changes in the wind climate.

The extent of the damage also depends on other factors that are more related to human behaviour and our vulnerability to disruptions in the infrastructure, not least regarding our electricity dependence.